Sunday, January 25, 2009


Alan Note: This is provided "as is" and I do not have any personal interest in this nor experience with the products. However, in this time of emergency, it might prove useful to many of us.

(Note from Canada) The following information is something most never heard of.

While the subject may seem DRY ( pun intended ) is it more important than you can imagine at thispoint in time. The following information and supplied links help to explain what really happens when the players lose FAITH in the credit system and it does not function anymore.

Something like what happened in 1929 only worse since this will affect most of the world more severely this time around.

When supplies do not move, the system starts to shut down.

We here at the Survival Center have been dealing with this for over a year now. We have been watching wait-times get longer and longer on some supplies especially those coming out of China. Even the USA made items, like some foods, are hard to get.

This information alone we hope will peak your interest in wanting to store food and other supplies now while they are still available. Being prepared to be self-sufficient in these days just makes good sense.

As the system unravels, it will get worse and worse.

While we share the enthusiasm and hope that the new administration brings, we sincerely want to see it work for the betterment of all of us not just another round of the rich get richer the rest get the bill! ( we could go on days here, however) our part is to still look at the reality of the situation and be ready forwhat ever may happen.

There are many things already set in motion that will not change. This is the main reason for us wanting to be prepared.

Others things, we will do our best to help change.

Changing ourselves and our attitudes is a big step in that direction.

There are things we see that are hard to explain in detail in a short newsletter. In fact, we are only able to relay a small portion of this to you. We do our best to point you, our subscribers, in some of the different directions we see for you to research more on your own. If you could only see what we see and know what we know ( after almost 4 decadesof research ) you would surely be preparing for your future in a very different way.

If you really want to know, the information is available, ( would you like the red pill or the blue one? ) however you have to look for it. Google works wonders. Use it while it is still up and some what free.

Keep in mind that as the US economy goes, so generally speaking, does the rest of the world.

1. Shipping and The Baltic Dry Index.
Alert** US to be CUT OFF from World - Baltic Dry Index Falls 93%
Charts here:

This is a video on You Tube that explains it well. You will need a highspeed connection and turn on your sound.

The Credit Crisis is Just Another Way of Describing a Loss of Trust

And the follow up here.

This is another video on You Tube that helps explain it. You will need a high speed connection and turn on your sound.

The Credit Crisis Just another way of Describing a Loss of Trust

1. The BDI measures the Baltic Exchange; a market index that calculates the price of a ship lease... for the buying and selling of time charters of ships.

If I need a ship, I lease one from a shipbroker and the ship broker reports the terms of my leaseie: price, size of ship, lease period etc... to the Baltic Exchange and they record the price.

Wall Street speculators entered the market and started buying up time charters. There were no speculative sellers, only buyers. Thus, this inequality between buyers and sellers in an especially illiquid, hitherto "commercial player only" distorted prices.

When the speculative bull decided to cash out of the market, the marketcollapsed.

In COMEX, you have commercial and speculative buyers and sellers and a highly liquid market.The Baltic Exchange wasn't historically a speculative market. When speculators finally exited, the BDI crashed.

2. Letters of Credit Explained.

There are many types. Only one matters to the current crisis:


Letters of Credit are financial instruments which guarantee payment before delivery.

Example: I'm not shipping copper without a letter. I might not get paid on delivery. Your court system may not honor my just argument when I go to sue. Thus, I need a guarantee before delivery.

Banks used to trust each other, now they don't...Why not? Off balance sheet accounting.

Commercial buyers and sellers are no different. The letter of credit is the Achilles heel of the global economy. Without it nothing moves. The BDI gauges economic activity. The dishonoring of that document known as the letter of credit, gauges the lack of trust.

The issue, as Rick Santelli points out, is fundamentally one of trust. Until we have trust we will not have an economic recovery. We can have an inflationary recovery, where the general distrust of is outweighed by the fear of holding currency which is rapidly losing purchasing power/value.

ie: "I'm afraid to hold cash and my fear overwhelms my fear of my counterparty so I'm compelled to put it back into a market that I don't trust" is the only rationale which currently exists to force bullish speculation in the market.

And this rationale isn't tenable until the Fed starts honestly, diligently...throwing money out of helicopters. And they have to throw it faster than the banks can pick it up. They must either debase the currency until people panic or prosecute the liars. One or the other.

************2. What the Railroads Are Telling Us About the Economy
Gary North January 23, 2009

The decline in shipping indicates that there will be no relief to the economy. If producers are not shipping it is because demand is falling

Railroads will be beneficiaries from rising energy costs, especially oil. I think this sector of the economy will be an early warning indicator of the recovery. Businesses will seek lower costs. Shipping is highly competitive for transportation in between large cities. It is more cost-effective than trucks.

There is no indication of any recovery yet. The decline is sharp. The quest for a stock market bottom is a full-time job these days. Until rail shipments increase, do not believe in the bottom for the economy.

Railcar suppliers that hobbled through a tough 2008 are bracing for a much worse 2009, with forecasters warning of the worst demand levels since the1980s. Equipment leasing giants and shippers are idling hundreds of thousands of railcars, pushing back on new car prices and wondering if theystill need cars they ordered earlier.

Even the largest railroads are starting to feel the pain, as the collapsing freight sector curbs profits even as carriers lay up locomotives to shrink capacity and furlough workers to cut operating costs. December was the worst month yet in this downturn for rail traffic, with volume tumbling even faster at a time many analysts had hoped the slide would ease.

So far, January has signaled more wreckage to come.

Evelyn De Rothschild Warning Masses - Too Late (Holding Bonds, Oil, Gold)

This is another video on You Tube that helps explain it. You will need a high speed connection and turn on your sound.

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Link Here: New "Basic Preparedness" The 3 DVD Preparedness Home Study Course:

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1 comment:

The Word-Drum said...

Open invitation to Word-Drum's Bunker for Alan Peters: